Nonlinear sequential designs for logistic item response theory models with applications to computerized adaptive tests

Computerized adaptive testing is becoming increasingly popular due to advancement of modern computer technology. It differs from the conventional standardized testing in that the selection of test items is tailored to individual examinee's ability level. Arising from this selection strategy is a nonlinear sequential design problem. We study, in this paper, the sequential design problem in the context of the logistic item response theory models. We show that the adaptive design obtained by maximizing the item information leads to a consistent and asymptotically normal ability estimator in the case of the Rasch model. Modifications to the maximum information approach are proposed for the two- and three-parameter logistic models. Similar asymptotic properties are established for the modified designs and the resulting estimator. Examples are also given in the case of the two-parameter logistic model to show that without such modifications, the maximum likelihood estimator of the ability parameter may not be consistent.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS614 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Conversation with Yuan Shih Chow

Yuan Shih Chow was born in Hubei province in China, on September 1, 1924. The eldest child of a local militia and political leader, he grew up in war and turmoil. His hometown was on the front line during most of the Japanese invasion and occupation of China. When he was 16, Y. S. Chow journeyed, mostly on foot, to Chongqing (Chung-King), the wartime Chinese capital, to finish his high school education. When the Communist party gained power in China, Y. S. Chow had already followed his university job to Taiwan. In Taiwan, he taught mathematics as an assistant at National Taiwan University until he came to the United States in 1954. At the University of Illinois, he studied under J. L. Doob and received his Ph.D. in 1958. He served as a staff mathematician and adjunct faculty at the IBM Watson Research Laboratory and Columbia University from 1959 to 1962. He was a member of the Statistics Department at Purdue University from 1962 to 1968. From 1968 until his retirement in 1993, Y. S. Chow served as Professor of Mathematical Statistics at Columbia University. At different times, he was a visiting professor at the University of California at Berkeley, University of Heidelberg (Germany) and the National Central University, Taiwan. He served as Director of the Institute of Mathematics of Academia Sinica, Taiwan, and Director of the Center of Applied Statistics at Nankai University, Tianjin, China. He was instrumental in establishing the Institute of Statistics of Academia Sinica in Taiwan. He is currently Professor Emeritus at Columbia University. Y. S. Chow is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, a member of the International Statistical Institute and a member of Taiwan's Academia Sinica. He has numerous publications, including Great Expectations: The Theory of Optimal Stopping (1971), in collaboration with Herbert Robbins and David Siegmund, and Probability Theory (1978), in collaboration with Henry Teicher. Y. S. Chow has a strong interest in mathematics education. He taught high school mathematics for one year in 1947 and wrote a book on high school algebra in collaboration with J. H. Teng and M. L. Chu. In 1992, Y. S. Chow, together with I. S. Chang and W. C. Ho, established the Chinese Institute of Probability and Statistics in Taiwan. This conversation took place in the fall of 2003 in Dobbs Ferry, New York.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342304000000224 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Event History Analysis of Dynamic Communication Networks

Statistical analysis on networks has received growing attention due to demand from various emerging applications. In dynamic networks, one of the key interests is to model the event history of time-stamped interactions amongst nodes. We propose to model dynamic directed communication networks via multivariate counting processes. A pseudo partial likelihood approach is exploited to capture the network dependence structure. Asymptotic results of the resulting estimation are established. Numerical results are performed to demonstrate effectiveness of our proposal

Likelihood Adaptively Modified Penalties

A new family of penalty functions, adaptive to likelihood, is introduced for model selection in general regression models. It arises naturally through assuming certain types of prior distribution on the regression parameters. To study stability properties of the penalized maximum likelihood estimator, two types of asymptotic stability are defined. Theoretical properties, including the parameter estimation consistency, model selection consistency, and asymptotic stability, are established under suitable regularity conditions. An efficient coordinate-descent algorithm is proposed. Simulation results and real data analysis show that the proposed method has competitive performance in comparison with existing ones.Comment: 42 pages, 4 figure